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We introduce a new library of 535 194 model images of the supermassive black holes and Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) targets Sgr A* and M87*, computed by performing general relativistic radiative transfer calculations on general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics simulations. Then to infer underlying black hole and accretion flow parameters (spin, inclination, ion-to-electron temperature ratio, and magnetic field polarity), we train a random forest machine learning model on various hand-picked polarimetric observables computed from each image. Our random forest is capable of making meaningful predictions of spin, inclination, and the ion-to-electron temperature ratio, but has more difficulty inferring magnetic field polarity. To disentangle how physical parameters are encoded in different observables, we apply two different metrics to rank the importance of each observable at inferring each physical parameter. Details of the spatially resolved linear polarization morphology stand out as important discriminators between models. Bearing in mind the theoretical limitations and incompleteness of our image library, for the real M87* data, our machinery favours high-spin retrograde models with large ion-to-electron temperature ratios. Due to the time-variable nature of these targets, repeated polarimetric imaging will further improve model inference as the EHT and next-generation (EHT) continue to develop and monitor their targets.

 

The circular polarization of black hole accretion flows can encode properties of the underlying magnetic field structure. Using general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations, we study the imprint of magnetic field geometry on circular polarization images potentially observable by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT). We decompose images into the different mechanisms that generate circular polarization in these models that are sensitive to both the line-of-sight direction and twist of the magnetic field. In these models, a stable sign of the circular polarization over time, as observed for several sources, can be attributed to a stability of these properties. We illustrate how different aspects of a generic helical magnetic field geometry become imprinted on a circular polarization image. We also identify novel effects of light bending that affect the circular polarization image on event horizon scales. One consequence is the sign flipping of successive photon rings in face-on systems, which if observable and uncorrupted by Faraday rotation, can directly encode the handedness of the approaching magnetic field.

 

Abstract In this paper we provide a first physical interpretation for the Event Horizon Telescope's (EHT) 2017 observations of Sgr A*. Our main approach is to compare resolved EHT data at 230 GHz and unresolved non-EHT observations from radio to X-ray wavelengths to predictions from a library of models based on time-dependent general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics simulations, including aligned, tilted, and stellar-wind-fed simulations; radiative transfer is performed assuming both thermal and nonthermal electron distribution functions. We test the models against 11 constraints drawn from EHT 230 GHz data and observations at 86 GHz, 2.2 μ m, and in the X-ray. All models fail at least one constraint. Light-curve variability provides a particularly severe constraint, failing nearly all strongly magnetized (magnetically arrested disk (MAD)) models and a large fraction of weakly magnetized models. A number of models fail only the variability constraints. We identify a promising cluster of these models, which are MAD and have inclination i ≤ 30°. They have accretion rate (5.2–9.5) × 10 −9 M ⊙ yr −1 , bolometric luminosity (6.8–9.2) × 10 35 erg s −1 , and outflow power (1.3–4.8) × 10 38 erg s −1 . We also find that all models with i ≥ 70° fail at least two constraints, as do all models with equal ion and electron temperature; exploratory, nonthermal model sets tend to have higher 2.2 μ m flux density; and the population of cold electrons is limited by X-ray constraints due to the risk of bremsstrahlung overproduction. Finally, we discuss physical and numerical limitations of the models, highlighting the possible importance of kinetic effects and duration of the simulations. 

Abstract We present a framework for characterizing the spatiotemporal power spectrum of the variability expected from the horizon-scale emission structure around supermassive black holes, and we apply this framework to a library of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations and associated general relativistic ray-traced images relevant for Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations of Sgr A*. We find that the variability power spectrum is generically a red-noise process in both the temporal and spatial dimensions, with the peak in power occurring on the longest timescales and largest spatial scales. When both the time-averaged source structure and the spatially integrated light-curve variability are removed, the residual power spectrum exhibits a universal broken power-law behavior. On small spatial frequencies, the residual power spectrum rises as the square of the spatial frequency and is proportional to the variance in the centroid of emission. Beyond some peak in variability power, the residual power spectrum falls as that of the time-averaged source structure, which is similar across simulations; this behavior can be naturally explained if the variability arises from a multiplicative random field that has a steeper high-frequency power-law index than that of the time-averaged source structure. We briefly explore the ability of power spectral variability studies to constrain physical parameters relevant for the GRMHD simulations, which can be scaled to provide predictions for black holes in a range of systems in the optically thin regime. We present specific expectations for the behavior of the M87* and Sgr A* accretion flows as observed by the EHT. 

Abstract We present the first Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations of Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), the Galactic center source associated with a supermassive black hole. These observations were conducted in 2017 using a global interferometric array of eight telescopes operating at a wavelength of λ = 1.3 mm. The EHT data resolve a compact emission region with intrahour variability. A variety of imaging and modeling analyses all support an image that is dominated by a bright, thick ring with a diameter of 51.8 ± 2.3 μ as (68% credible interval). The ring has modest azimuthal brightness asymmetry and a comparatively dim interior. Using a large suite of numerical simulations, we demonstrate that the EHT images of Sgr A* are consistent with the expected appearance of a Kerr black hole with mass ∼4 × 10 6 M ⊙ , which is inferred to exist at this location based on previous infrared observations of individual stellar orbits, as well as maser proper-motion studies. Our model comparisons disfavor scenarios where the black hole is viewed at high inclination ( i > 50°), as well as nonspinning black holes and those with retrograde accretion disks. Our results provide direct evidence for the presence of a supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, and for the first time we connect the predictions from dynamical measurements of stellar orbits on scales of 10 3 –10 5 gravitational radii to event-horizon-scale images and variability. Furthermore, a comparison with the EHT results for the supermassive black hole M87* shows consistency with the predictions of general relativity spanning over three orders of magnitude in central mass.